The disrupters of Silicon Valley and its tributaries have finally trained their GPS on the most fundamental of all human needsâfood. In San Francisco recently, 1,300 Â venture capitalists, gene scientists, bio-tech visionaries and startup aspirants gathered to probe what they consider to be the nearly digitally virgin terrain of agriculture. Itâs a terrain thatâs being profoundly transformed by the biggest disrupter of all: climate change.
‘Nothing we knew in the past is a fact today.’Howard Yana-Shapiro Mars Corporation
As attendees at the fifth annual World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit trooped from ballroom to ballroom at the Hilton, plotting the future of agriculture, more than half a million acres of Central Valley fields, once filled with tomatoes, lettuce, almonds, and other crops sat empty for another day of nothing happening. They are fields out of commission, fallowed by two symptoms of climate volatility that are challenging the agricultural practices in the Central Valley and across the countryâtoo little water, or water thatâs too salty for cultivating crops.
Everyone at the Summit, who paid almost $2,400 to be there for two days, is well aware that climate change is reshaping agriculture: Temperature, rainfall and the imbalances that lead to extreme weather are all in a kind of atmospheric free-for-all, as greenhouse gases accumulate and volatility accelerates. And thatâs just the beginning, as the federal governmentâs National Climate Assessment told us last year: There is more turbulence to come. Losses will likely accelerate as the weather changes; new pests and diseases that were wholly unanticipated a decade ago are heading north across the US, following the heat; extreme destructive events multiply in their number and intensity.
As the Summit convened, the Midwest was reeling from a devastating cyclonethat left hundreds of thousand of acres underwater. Â A team of scientists of scientists from UC Merced sounded the alarm last year in thepeer-reviewed journal, âAgronomyâ: âAdaptation,â they said, âwas a matter of the utmost urgency.â For farmers in California, they warned, there is accelerating volatility–year after year of never-before experienced deviations from what had been the ânormsâ of heat and rain. Â
Or, as Howard Yana-Shapiro, chief Agricultural Officer for the Mars Corporation, put it in an interview at the Hilton, âNothing we knew in the past is a fact today.â
Thatâs sobering news for Big Ag, which requires predictability above all. Mainstream food production counts on using the same seeds across vastly different ecological zones, sustained by a set of identical and reproducible chemical inputs. But the rate of disruption in the fundamental elements that foster food growth — sun, rain, soil — is outpacing the abilityof even major seed breeders to keep up.
Itâs not knowing whatâs coming that haunts the attendees at the Ag-Tech Summit. Mars was at the summit because the three main ingredients the company relies on for its candy  — peanuts, cacao and mint — are experiencing devastating losses, and Yana-Shapiro is running test plots in Davis to find more resilient ways of growing them. Land OâLakes was there because dairy farmers face a combination of plunging prices and shifting conditions for the silage they grow for their cows. Driscollâs was there out of concern for how much water theyâll be able to supply for their berries. And two giant grain traders, Cargill and ADM, were anxious about destabilization of their cereal and grain supplies.
How, Then, Will We Grow Food?
Into this whirlpool of disruption come the disrupters.
Itâs about a hundred miles from the Hilton in San Francisco to the heart of the Central Valley, around Modesto, but it might as well be a million. There was barely a farmer in sight, among the men and women boasting name tags like Amazon Web Services, Google Launchpad, Rabo AgriFinance (a bank), Lazard (financiers), Microsoft, Immarsat (satellites that provide ag-related imagery), IBM, Wells Fargo, and Evogene (specializing in gene sequencing).
The self-titled Captain of Moonshots Astro Teller, who is CEO of X, the company in charge of Googleâs advanced technology division, launched the proceedings with a brief staccato call for a âmoonshotâ for agriculture. He wasnât overly specific as to what that would beâit was a roomful of potential competitors and start-ups seeking cashâbut he came to the Continental Ballroom with a portfolio of already-launched initiatives by X of what the company calls âcomputational agriculture.â That means applying artificial intelligence to the hurly-burly hard work of conjuring food from the earth–from sensors that can signal the prime time for harvest to autonomous vehicles capable of harvesting crops or applying pesticides at record-breaking speeds.
The thing about food, you start talking about the âmoonâ but you always end up closer to Earth. In the hallways of the Hilton, under the wannabe chandeliers, came the buzzwords and affirmations, like mantras: Â âsustainability,â âresilience,â âgood for the planet,â âROI,â (return on investment) and, soon enough, âwin-win.â
Prowling the conversations and presentations, never seen but omnipresent, was the âunicorn,â the billion dollar company-to-be that would transform farm fields and enable them to withstand the onrushing changesâlike Uber transformed the taxi business.
Was the unicorn a new robot capable of traversing apple orchards and plucking fruit without human intervention? Could it be the new hyper-sensitive pest monitor which can provide a stream of acre-by-acre data about pest populations and narrow the target for spraying insecticides? Or was it the microbe dropped into the soil that encourages crop-friendly nematodes (aka, worms) to reproduce and populate the fields, but kills the nematodes hostile to crops? Or maybe itâs the new genetic interventions that can sterilize pest populations and– Hey!—genetic interventions could even someday allow plants to flourish in a drought! (This one is nowhere near any even distant horizon, due to the complex genetics of how plants integrate and use water — but this was a conference of relentless optimists.)
Top of the list was, as might be expected, more data: Install pest tracking sensors that use an algorithm to identify which insect species are there that threaten the crop, and which donât. Insert sensors into the soil to monitor water absorption, and identify where additional irrigation might be essential. Or, suggested an executive at the European airplane manufacturer Airbus: Hire our satellite fleet to capture photos that can tell you where fields are drying and whether cover crops are enriching soils.
âImagine if all of the data we have access to today is a grain of sand,â Matt Crisp, Vice President of Benson Hill Bio Systems, a leading bio-tech firm, intoned from the dais. âThen in 10 years weâll be walking on the beach.â
Some of the more advanced ideas actually signaled a return to earlier knowledge: The soil. After a half a century in which soilâaka, dirtâhas been treated as a kind of platform for an environment constructed from synthetic agri-chemicals, attention is returning to how plant crops might draw what they need from soil itself. In other words, a 10,000-year-old idea, dating to the domestication of agriculture–or a billions-year old concept dating to the genesis of life on Earth– is in vogue once again, with, of course, a Silicon Valley bio-tech twist.
âBiology is the next building material to solve the challenges of agriculture,â Karsten Temme, CEO and co-founder of Pivot-Bio, commented in an interview. Pivot-Bio has looked inside the genomes of microbes that spend their life in soil, and figured out a way to unlock their ability to turn nitrogen into mineral nourishment for plants. Which means unlocking capacities they used to have before industrial agriculture.
âWhen modern fertilizers came along,â Temme said, âthe microbes lost their ability to metabolize nitrogen in a way that was beneficial to the plants. They went into hibernation.â
His genetic intervention is aimed at triggering that nascent function back into action.
Who is Disrupting What?
Over the two days, a  question hung in the air: What precisely are the disrupters aiming to disrupt?
There were promises of small-scale disruption to be sure, including those non-chemical soil treatments designed to short-circuit the reproductive capacity of nematodes–aka, worms–that attack crops; the sensors for identifying already moist areas in fields and thus guide more targeted irrigation; and Pivot Bioâs nitrogen stimulant for micro-organisms, reducing the need for synthetic nitrogen fertilizer applications. Â All could conceivably reduce the need for synthetic chemicals and ensure less wasted water.
In his keynote, Neal Gutterson, the Chief Technology Officer of Corteva, the agri-chemical division of the two merged chemical giants DowDuPont, offered five company goals on PowerPoint — aphorisms for agriculture.
âOur job,â he intoned, âis simplifying the life of farmers and consumers. Consumers want cleaner labels, less waste, environmental sustainability, increasing yields, and to reduce our environmental footprint.â For the most part, for Americaâs largest agri-chemical company, that meant more efficient ways of delivering the companyâs agri-chemicals. For example, more use of drones to identify areas of insect infestationâand thus target the application of the companyâs pesticidesâas well as more active bio-tech initiatives, including genome alterations aimed at increasing yields. He highlighted the companyâs development of a new herbicide, called Enlist Duo, that he claimed is less âprone to driftâ onto a neighborâs field than the herbicides of their competitors, the double-stacked glyphosate-2,4-D weedkiller produced by competitors like Monsanto.
But thereâs a bigger picture. Climate change strains the half-century of agricultural practices that are based on fighting nature, breeding seeds that require pesticides to survive, or geoengineering them to enable resistance to their own herbicides, as in the case with glyphosate, hence insulating the seed through chemical interventions from the environment around them. Itâs a system heavily dependent on fossil fuels, synthetic fertilizers and mono-cropping, and contributes huge quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The worldâs three dominant agri-chemical companiesâMonsanto/Bayer, Corteva (the renamed agricultural chemical and seed division of the merged DowDuPont), and Syngenta, now owned by ChemChina, the largest chemical company in Chinaâwere among the âPlatinumâ sponsors of the conference. They are the Moebius Strip of industrial agriculture, their logos plastered behind the speakers on the dais, speakers who were there to consider how to shake up the status quo that those companies contributed mightily to creating over the last half-century.
Indeed, most of the big disruptions were already happening far from the Hilton and independent of any of the initiatives suggested there. The âbomb cycloneâ that hit Nebraska and elsewhere in the Midwest left hundreds of thousands of acres of farm fields and crops underwater, demonstrating the fragile status of the Midwestâs commodity agriculture. And on the very same day the Summit commenced at the Hilton, a federal judge in San Francisco, in a courtroom barely a mile from the Hilton, declared Monsantoâs corporate parent Bayer liable for the cancer caused by its weedkiller glyphosate to a 70-year-old man, Charles Hardeman, who had applied it to his property outside Santa Rosa for several decades. That verdict presents a direct threat to the financial stability of Monsantoâs new corporate parent, and to the practice of tying a seed so closely to a chemical. (One week later, the court ruled that Hardeman was entitled to $80 million in damages). Bayer/Monsanto is appealing the verdict.
âA real âdisruptionâ would be if your seed doesnât need to be blanketed with glyphosate,â quipped Charles Baron, a co-founder and Vice President of the Farmers Business Network, which provides data to farmers independent of the major seed and chemical companies. âThat would be a real disruption.â
In the face of the biggest climate disruption in recorded history, the billions of dollars in the room and the sharpest technical minds were thinking of how to bulletproof the status quo with greater and greater levels of technological intervention.
The conference, like the phenomenon we all face, had a poignant ring of sci-fiâas some of the worldâs most sophisticated players in agriculture, high-tech, and venture capital, accustomed to a playing field they can shape, contended with a new global playing field already shifting in a million ways they cannot guide and over which they have little control.
For its part, Bayer celebrated its participation in the summit by announcing its latest innovation âa newly hybridized broccoli with a higher crown that simplifies the machine harvesting of broccoli. Itâs name: High-Rise broccoli.
The Summit ended. The search for the unicorn continued.
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