If current trends continue, California may impose another sweeping stay-at-home order across the vast majority of the state, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday, due to rapidly rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations rates.
The potential order would apply to the 51 California counties that are now in the most restrictive, reopening “purple” tier, where transmission is considered widespread, Newsom said. That would place roughly 99% of the state’s population under shutdown restrictions similar to those imposed in mid-March, at the beginning of the pandemic, when the state barred nearly all nonessential workers and other residents from leaving their homes except for essential tasks and exercise.
“The red flags are flying in terms of the trajectory in our projections of growth,” Newsom, who is currently quarantining at home, said at a virtual news conference. “If these trends continue, weâre going to have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic, action.”
With an average of nearly 15,000 new, daily infections reported over the last week, caseloads are now far outpacing the previous surge during the summer, Newsom said. Roughly 12% of new cases will likely require hospitalization over a two-week period. That could cause a spike in new admissions across the state, and quickly straining intensive care units, he said.
“We’re not now just looking at case rates; we are now looking in real time at hospitalization numbers and ICU capacity in those regions,” Newsom said. Within the next day or two, he said, state health officials will determine whether to mandate a new set of restrictions in purple-tiered counties that is “more in line with the stay-at-home order that folks were familiar with in the beginning of this year.”
Referring to the potential order as a âdeep purpleâ measure, Newsom said it could include modifications for some businesses to continue operating under certain conditions, but he did not elaborate on what those would be.
This is the tipping point.
CA has worked hard to prepare for a surgeâbut we canât sustain the record high cases weâre seeing.
Current projections show CA will run out of current ICU beds before Christmas Eve.
Please stay safe & stay home as much as you can for next few weeks. pic.twitter.com/5NJYzHokhE
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) November 30, 2020
Hospitalizations across the state have increased 89% over the past 14 days and nearly 7,800 coronavirus patients were hospitalized as of Monday, Newsom said.
The biggest concern is intensive care cases, which have increased 67% in the past two weeks, he said. If that continues, it would push ICU beds to 112% of capacity by mid-December.
It’s that statistic that is most likely to drive state-mandated stay-at-home orders in 51 of Californiaâs 58 counties that already are seeing the most restrictions on business activities, said Dr. Mark Ghaly, the stateâs secretary of health and human services.
“I’ll remind you that the high case numbers that we’ve seen in the last week and 10 days have not even begun to impact hospitals yet. We know that it takes about two weeks,” he said.
ICU hospitalization rates vary by county and region, he said, and are of greater concern than overall hospital capacity.
âBottom line is we are looking at intensive care unit capacity as the primary trigger for deeper, more restrictive actions,â Ghaly said.
By the second half of December, California âcould be pushing the limits in some areas,â he said, adding that âwe want to act sooner than that so we can get transmission down and we can handle those potential high ICU surges.â
As coronavirus cases surge, another six counties â including San Francisco and San Mateo â were moved into the purple tier over the weekend.The state’s total number of cases since March is nearing 1.2 million, and the death toll has topped 19,000.
Newsom added, however, that these potential new measures were not inevitable, and largely avoidable.
“This is in the absence of making better decisions,” he said. “If we just sit back and we are bystanders at this moment and we don’t subsequently improve upon our existing efforts, this is what we project might occur.”
Additionally, Newsom said California expects to receive by mid-December about 327,000 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by drugmaker Pfizer, and said his office would release a detailed distribution plan later this week. That vaccine, which has shown to be about 95% effective in preventing new infections, requires two doses, and must be stored at minus 103 degrees Fahrenheit â far below the capability of standard freezers.
.@GavinNewsom says CA will see 327,000 vaccines in a few weeks (remember you need 2 doses of the vaccine). @KQEDnews pic.twitter.com/wUZf0zTJiO
— Laura Klivans (@lauraklivans) November 30, 2020
During the briefing, Newsom also announced a series of new tax relief measures intended to help small businesses, who have been particularly hard hit by the coronavirus restrictions. They include an automatic three-month extension for taxpayers filing less than $1 million in sales tax as well as interest-free payment agreements to larger companies with up to $5 million in sales tax.
“You can hold that money. You can use that money to float any obligations you have,” he said.
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