"This [Humboldt County] is actually one of the most challenging environments to forecast the weather," says Troy Nicolini, the meteorologist in charge for the National Weather Service on Woodley Island. On this episode of Talk Humboldt, Nicolini explores the local climate conditions and the complexities of weather forecasting on the North Coast.
Nicolini addresses the impact of climate change on Humboldt County's weather and explains that forecasting involves much more than predicting daily weather conditions. “For many people who are in specialist fields like a pilot or a firefighter, we are committed to providing service to those sectors,” he said.
[Editor note: This interview originally aired in two parts, which are shared below.]
TRANSCRIPT:
Tom Jackson:
Hi, I'm Tom Jackson, president at Cal Poly Humboldt and I'm here again today with my dear friend and colleague, Dr. Keith Framer, the president of College of the Redwoods. Good to see you, Keith.
Keith Flamer:
Good to see you, too, Tom.
Tom Jackson:
We're here with Troy Nicolini, the meteorologist in charge for the National Weather Service. Good to see you, Troy.
Troy Nicolini:
It's great to be here.
Tom Jackson:
What does the National Weather Service do?
Troy Nicolini:
Oh, wow. That's a profound question. For the average person they just know we forecast weather. It's going to be sunny or rainy and whether to bring an umbrella. But for many people who are in specialist fields like a pilot or a firefighter, we are committed to providing service to those sectors. We also provide the coastal waters forecast for the Mariners, and then we do the tsunami as well, and flooding. So those are really our focus areas in this office.
Tom Jackson:
Seems the National Weather Service has a fantastic reputation for getting it right most of the time. How do you do that?
Troy Nicolini:
That's good to hear, and actually, you know, interestingly, where we're sitting, we're on the West Coast. And so this is actually one of the most challenging environments to forecast the weather.
Keith Flamer:
Tell us why that is.
Troy Nicolini:
You know, everything that we get for the most part comes off the Pacific Ocean and there's very few instruments out over the Pacific Ocean. But when you look at areas to the east of us, by the time a storm, for example, has hit the Midwest, it's already traveled across a lot of the country. It's been measured and observed and there's much more known about it. So this is in some ways one of the most challenging environments you can forecast the weather. But in spite of that, there's a couple of reasons why our accuracy has really improved, you know, over the past 30 years. One of them is our people, you know, mastery in their field and becoming very knowledgeable about the atmosphere. But also the computer models that we run have improved significantly. The computational horsepower that's at our disposal in the investment the United States has spent on that mixed with incredible improvements in the way we can simulate and model the atmosphere. Those all come together to improve the accuracy that we now have for forecasting.
Tom Jackson:
We're here today with Troy Nicolini, the meteorologist in charge for the National Weather Service here in Eureka. Troy, question on climate here, hot or cold or some of us will say, gosh, it feels like it's getting colder. Others will say it's getting hotter. Now, what's really happening?
Troy Nicolini:
At this latitude, we don't see a lot of change in the sensible weather. There's a perception by people who have lived here for a long time, there's less fog right around the whole Bay region.
We can't find that in the measurements, but it might just be because our measurements didn't capture it really well enough to discern that change. If there was a change, most weather people like that I know, like to reflect on the fact that there used to be TP burners all around Humboldt bay and so there would have been a lot of particulates put into the atmosphere and those are condensation nuclei that could have enhanced fog creation right here in Humboldt Bay region. So, it might not be so much a cause of climate change that we've seen less fog in the past 50 or 60 years, so much as just the fact that we're not putting all that stuff in the atmosphere like we used to. So that's the one thing I've heard mentioned, seems like we have less fog. But, you know, when we look at the temperature trends, we don't see a strong signal of change in the Humboldt Bay region. I mean, you've probably heard people call it a climate refuge, for example. Right. And there is some truth to that that we seem to be a little more resilient to some of the changes we're seeing in other parts of the West and even the state. A good example of that would be the smoke. If you go to the north of here during some of those wildfire periods, Southern Oregon coast was hit by smoke. If you go south of this area, there's smoke at the coast. But often this area somehow misses it. The redwoods exist because we've had that onshore flow that causes upwelling, that causes fog for forever. And so that cooling mechanism is still intact and still functioning for our region. I feel like I need to ask if our climate guy happens to be here. Matthew, let me ask Matthew that question and get back to you, okay? Yeah, just let me hold on a second. That’s a good– yeah, I just don't want to speak out of turn. Matthew, does our data show climate change here in Humboldt County? You’re like wait a minute I'm going to close that door and act like I never even came in.
Matthew Kidwell:
Not right here at the coast, at the coast, it's kind of an interesting situation because we're so tied to the ocean, our temperatures. So, you know, you get a little further inland, probably in interior Humboldt. And there is, you know, some warming trends, basic warming trends.
Troy Nicolini:
Okay, I got it right.
Keith Flamer:
Thank you. Thank you, Matthew, for coming.
Troy Nicolini:
Yeah, actually, let me clarify one thing. So everybody in this building that you're meeting is a meteorologist, and it turns out that's a different field than climatologists.
Keith Flamer:
Thank you. Okay. I didn't know. Thank you. What’s the difference for that?
Troy Nicolini:
We forecast about seven days, maybe ten or 14 on a you know, stretch. And so climate is like what's going to happen next year and next season ten years from now. It's a totally different discipline with different tools and different methodologies. But we recognize that society wants to know about climate change. And I can give you a concrete example if you're interested.
Keith Flamer:
Please. Yes.
Troy Nicolini:
The City of Arcata recently was wrestling with how much sea level rise to factor into their gateway plan. And there's consultants who have opinions. There's the state of California Coastal Commission that have an opinion. There's academia that has an opinion. Most people recognize NOA as the sort of the credible source for sea level rise projections. And so I was contacted by The City of Arcata, and I was able to bring in two NOA specialists on sea level rise to bring to the conversation the position that NOA has on sea level rise for this area.
Tom Jackson:
So, Troy, I have an odd question.
Troy Nicolini: Sure.
Tom Jackson:
You probably should expect this and it has to do with the airline flights coming in.
Troy Nicolini:
Yeah.
Tom Jackson:
Is there anything we could do to get the fog to go away so the planes can land? But that's– going that a little bit differently, do airlines track the weather in such a way where they might actually set when they're landing so that we might have the best weather to enable them to land?
Troy Nicolini:
Yeah, that's a tough one. So, yes, we could move the airport.
Tom Jackson:
Okay alright.
Keith Flamer:
Outside of moving the airport.
Troy Nicolini:
I mean, I'll share with you that that is a really challenging airport to forecast for. And we have some meteorologists here that have been in this office for, you know, 20, 28 years our most senior person. And to this day, he will still struggle at times to nail exactly when the Stratus will move onshore and reduce visibility to the point where it limits airline arrivals. Right. It's still a challenge for him. And he's really exceptional. We do the best we can, but it's a very challenging site to forecast.
PART II
Tom Jackson:
Yeah. All those from the 90s keep saying that's it’s getting hotter..
Troy Nicolini:
You know, I think what factors into this is people's perception of weather over time. It's very interesting. And I feel like I've studied it accidentally for years.
Long before I joined the weather service, I was an engineering student at UC Davis, and I was the caretaker of the horse barn on campus, and the water troughs froze over when one time in the winter, it was like an inch and a half of ice. And the manager of the horse barn said, “That's nothing. Back in the day, it would freeze over three inches thick.”
I thought, wow. So I looked at the data that they didn't support that. That was actually the coldest it had ever been in Davis and like the past 50 years. But I just I think that was my early perception and an early exposure to someone's perception.
Troy Nicolini:
I hear a lot of perception in this area, you know, from folks who've been here a long time, but I don't know. Sometimes it's just your your bias changing as you go through time.
Tom Jackson:
Well, you talked about Davis. I want to connect us for a moment back to Humboldt. How did you find yourself here? Try coming to this National Weather Service station in Eureka. What's the pathway that led you here?
Troy Nicolini:
Oh, I love that. I've actually often thought that would be a great little radio series on “How did you get to Humboldt” and...
Tom Jackson:
Well, here you go!
Keith Flamer:
Yeah, you're right here. So, Troy, how did you get to Humboldt?
Tom Jackson:
We’ll just add an hour to the show.
Troy Nicolini:
I had this crazy point in my life where I worked with an amazing group of people. And Davis. Everybody, like, would hug each other in the heart. It was just like an amazing camaraderie and team spirit. You know?
But I have been a coastal person my whole life and I was stuck there for 11 years. I had a great research position, you know, as a hydraulic engineer, but I kept applying for jobs, and I'd get offered the job. And I would decline the job.I promised myself the very next job offer I got I was going to take no matter what. And this was it. So it wasn't a really well thought-out decision. You know, I had to get back to the coast. I took this job, came here and immediately regretted it. I could not believe what a mistake I had made professionally, but I loved it here.
And so I stuck with it and fell in love with the mission. And so it was a weird chain of accidents.
Keith Flamer:
So, Trey, tell us about your typical day as the person in charge of this.
Troy Nicolini:
Yeah. So so my typical day varies a lot depending on how quiet the weather is. So, you know, today I spent a lot of time working on administrative tasks, for example. You guys might know about that. [laughter]
In the middle of the winter when we have storms, I'm just like everyone else out there. We run a command system called Incident Command System. And so we do a lot of preparation. And then when the fire season comes, we really ramp up and become really focused on fire weather.
Keith Flamer:
Why?
Troy Nicolini:
In the simplest sense, you know, fire is influenced by by wind and humidity and temperature. For example, if you're a firefighter, you don't want the wind to be blowing from the direction of the fire towards your crew. So knowing the wind direction is really essential. So if you're a firefighter and an incident command and you need to know what the weather is going to do on a very specific side of a hill, our staff will respond quickly and send out really detailed, specific weather information for that exact spot.
Keith Flamer:
Is it hard to find staff to work?
Troy Nicolini:
It is. This office is a very challenging place to forecast, but it's not a particularly satisfying place to forecast the weather.
Keith Flamer:
What does that mean?
Troy Nicolini:
Well, that stratus I mentioned, you know, the airport, the visibility. It's really hard to forecast. You put a lot of effort into it and still get it wrong. In contrast to forecasting, for example, tornadoes. We have incredible skill in predicting when a tornado will occur and where it will occur.
So it's very satisfying to see a tornado set up and issue a warning. And everyone's cell phone goes off with a wireless emergency alert, and everybody gets into their safety shelter, and they all survive the tornado because of the work you did as a meteorologist. Right? Like, that's really satisfying. Trying to forecast stratus for the Arcata airport and getting it wrong… is frustrating at times. So it's not the most popular place to forecast the weather for meteorologists.
So we have a bit of a hard time recruiting and retaining staff also, because most people want to eventually get back home. When you interview a person for a job like this, I always ask them as a question to help, to relax. What got you interested in weather? And the story is almost always the same. They were a little kid and a tornado came through. Or a blizzard or a hurricane and impacted their community, and they said at that moment they were going to be a meteorologist to help protect their community. It's hard to have that story if you grew up in California.
Only folks that we get who grew up in California who love weather, are surfers. However, they love the weather because weather makes waves and they study it for that reason. You met one today, Tyler. As you know, he grew up in California. He's a surfer. And, you know, that's kind of why we got him.
Tom Jackson:
What's the frequency of a tornado in Humboldt County?
Troy Nicolini:
So in and in all the data I can look at, we've had 1 EF0 in Mendocino County, and we've never had even an EF0 in Humboldt County. We had a waterspout come onshore in the bay, but didn't I don't think it quite qualified as a tornado. So tornadoes are very unlikely in this region. We literally cannot get a hurricane. Our ocean’s too cold. So even if a hurricane was screaming up from Mexico and traveling over our 50 degree water, it would die before it got here. So we literally cannot get a hurricane. Our hazards are really different.. They're not sensational or exciting like hurricanes. They're insidious. I mean, the number one killer for most people is walking on the beach.
Keith Flamer:
You have to talk about that. What does that mean?
Troy Nicolini:
Well, we have a really treacherous wave environment in this area. We can have certain times of the year, fall and spring in particular, where the ocean can look calm for ten, fifteen minutes or more, and then suddenly a large wave can strike without warning. So people walk on the beach too close to the water. They're fully dressed, right? Because it’s Humboldt. They get knocked down and pulled into the surf, the water so cold it's almost impossible to get out. Very few people get out once they're pulled into the surf. So, like, that's a crazy hazard, right? It's really hard to predict. That's what's unique about this area. We don't have the really high profile hazards that people are really familiar with.
We have these really kind of insidious, treacherous ones that kill people every year. And our rivers are a similar hazard. So it's a very different area. And then small hail on the highways. We're all California drivers. We don't know how to drive on ice. And so people sadly will slam on their breaks or oversteer. And then they spin out of control and get in accidents.
Keith Flamer:
So what other ways can someone work for you to work for the service?
Troy Nicolini:
About half our staff are meteorologists, but the other half is a mixture of administrative staff and computer specialists. And we have a hydrologist. So there's a few different pathways. So you can be an electronic specialist. You can be a hydrologist. You can be an admin specialist or a computer specialist. Remember I was an engineer when I came here and I had to go back to school to become a meteorologist.
And five years ago I had a young man show up on our doorstep. He said, I want to be a meteorologist and I want to work at your office.
Keith Flamer:
Is he still working?
Troy Nicolini:
He is. He's working here now. But five years ago he showed up. He had graduated from Cal Poly. But Cal Poly doesn't have a meteorology program, so he was taking courses online. And he actually was so determined. He went back to school and he eventually got qualified, and he showed up for a position and we hired him. And he still works here today.
So there is a way to become a meteorologist, even if you go to a school that doesn't have a meteorology program where there's a will, there's a way. Well said.
Tom Jackson:
That seems like a good place to stop trying. Troy Nicolini, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service. Thanks again.
Troy Nicolini:
Thank you.
